Imperialist bloodletting worsens in Middle East

The journal 'Foreign Affairs' of January/February 2012 carries an article entitled 'Time to Attack Iran'.  Fortunately that idea is questioned elsewhere in it.

Whereas ultimately the ongoing series of wars is unlikely to be ended prior to the ending of imperialism worldwide, as each war seems to be getting more destructive in both the short and long term, it seems necessary to ask what can be done to put the brake on the latest tendency to any specific war, and, if at all possible, prevent it, even though still under capitalism.

 While I agree that a war between Iran and Israel-US seems likely, I also do not see any possibility of stopping it without destroying imperialism. However, in a contradictory manner perhaps, this war, if it comes soon as some claim around April, then it may trigger or at least hasten the collapse of capitalism because Iran will definitely try to block the oil flow from Hurmuz Gulf. And since 1/5 of world oil is flowing from this sea, a war and Iran blocage will immediately rise the oil prices worldwide making the crisis even more unbearable to the system.

The question is: are the imperialist rivals that stupid to cause further ascelation of crisis through a war with Iran? Right now US strategy -if we believe Obama- is diplomacy, which means harsh sactions on Iran to stop its nuclear program. Even that can have immediate effects on, let's say European contries since a significant portion of European oil is also flowing from Hurmuz. 

With events in Syria - and the UN - taking their turn, I think that we can see that the war has already started. Russia and, to some extent, China are going against the powers of the US, Britain, France and, in this case, Germany. The arms, the intelligence and the diplomatic conduits are flowing in from the "west". The local powers, their puppets in the main, are actively involved. The social movement has been obliterated, tthe Syrian regime is bankrupt in more ways than one, the opposition is completely opposed to each other and incoherent - and there is no economic rationale to this whatsoever. It's already costing a fortuen. This is a good example of imperialism in decomposition. There doesn't have to be a declared war any time soon but the perspective is grim for the population and the longer and shorter term effects will continue to be further destabilising.

Jonathan Steele in the Guardian, 18.1.12 quotes a credible report that Turkey has become Washington's proxy and "unmarked Nato planes have been arriving at Iskenderum, near the Syrian border, delivering Libyan volunteers and weapons seized from Gadaffi's arsenal. 'French and British special forces trainers are on the ground... assisting the Syrian rebels. While the CIA and Spec Ops are providing communications equipment and intelligence".

 Baboon;

I think you are spot on on the role of turkish imperialism. Turkish state is such pineless organisation that one can even think it is something essential in the nature of this state that makes it so easy to shift from one side to the other. Yesterday AKP government was in total support of Essad regime. Just in one month after the rebellions began they started to shelter islamic guerillas. Now even they themselves except the fact that they are supporting the "armed resistance." It is no secret now even in Turkey.

Of course this is a feature of decomposition perhaps which makes alliance very fluid in terms of imperialist relations - which I definitely agree with ICC on this regard. 

I saw an interview with a Mid-East scholar on the tube the other day. He was talking about the continuing tensions in the region and mentioned the historic tensions between Turkey and Iran. Apparantely, during the 1991 Armenia vs. Azerbaijan conflict, Iran armed and funded the Armenians (an Eastern Orthodox country) against the Azeris (where the majority of the population are Shia Muslims, but of a Turkish ethnicity) out of fear of possibly being surrounded by Turkish imperialism. Supposedly, a large percentage of the population in Iran is of Azeri ancestry and Iran was concerned that Azerbaijan's victory in the war with Armenia would empower it (and its Turkish sponsor) to foment unrest within Iran's borders. It seems that even Iran, which the media constantly tell us is governed by irrational extremists with a fundamentalist death drive, imperialist real politik can still take center stage. Of course, the example given was from twenty years ago.